Previous Breakout
A few weeks ago I highlighted a possible breakout that was shaping up on the daily chart of US crude oil, and as it turned out, this would have been a very profitable trade:
After breaking out of the previous trading range and closing below the lower trendline, the price went from around $49.50 to as low as $42.44 in a relatively short period of time.
Inside Bars
Since then, the price has recovered somewhat and is now trading around the $45 – $46 level, having moved relatively little during this quiet Christmas and New Year period.
However it is interesting to note that an inside bar formation has formed on this same daily chart, which suggests that there may be a possible breakout in the next few days.
What I am basically saying is that after the large bullish candle on 26 December 2018, there have been 3 consecutive inside bars / candles (4 if you include the Sunday session) that have all traded within the range of this particular candle.
Trading Opportunity
This is often a very good set-up if you are looking to trade breakouts because traders will often spot the same breakout themselves and pile into a position once the price closes above or below the initial set-up candle, helping it to become a self-fulfilling breakout for everyone.
In this case, an upward breakout is looking more likely simply because it is trading closer to the high of the initial candle, and we are long overdue a bounce as the price of oil dropped so much last year.
Therefore if the price closes above $47.08 in the coming days without closing too far above this level, this could be a good opportunity to open a long position.
$50 would be an obvious resistance level, so it might be a good idea to target an exit price just below $50, but if it could break through this level, then the price could potentially surge towards the 100 and 200-day EMAs, which are currently at $57.76 and $61.26 respectively.
I personally think the first outcome is more likely because I think it will struggle to break through the $50 at the current time.
If the price doesn’t close above the high of the initial candle and instead breaks below the low of this candle, and indeed the low of the previous candle a few days earlier, then this will really open up the downside.
This would see the price drop to around $42, and if it closed around this level, you could then expect the price to fall below $40 fairly easily.
However at the moment we just have to wait and see what happens. What I will say is that the longer the price trades within the range of the initial set-up candle, the stronger the breakout is likely to be.
As always, please note that these are just my own thoughts and opinions. This doesn’t represent professional trading or financial advice in any way.
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